Bond markets surprised us today with the largest rally in the last two months. Fannie Mae 3.5s are up 3/8ths of a point, and 10 year yields are down 5.4bps as well. The ISM data released this morning was not likely the instigating factor, as the movement was already underway by the time the numbers were released. The rally is likely due to the way that traders have positioned themselves for November's end-of-month and setting up for December. Another factor at play is the simple theory of "short-covering", which means that traders are betting that rates will move higher, and are selling-off to avoid further losses. Of course, today's movement is not indicative of any long term trend, but it's a positive start to the month. The next few days of data will do more to set the tone. Tomorrow brings the ADP National Employment and ISM New York Index, Thursday we have Initial Jobless Claims and ISM Non N-Mfg PMI reports, and Friday is the release of the Non-Farm Payroll report, International Trade numbers, Private Payrolls, Unemployment Data, Manufacturing Payrolls, Average Workweek Hours and Earnings reports. Check back here tomorrow for the latest mortgage market news.
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