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Tim Howard

Bond Market Update

Thursday, May 30, 2013 - Article by: Tim Howard - VanDyk Mortgage - Message

May is nearing its end and it wasn't a good month for Bond prices. On May 1 the benchmark 3% coupon hit an intraday high of $104.91, but quickly lost 472bp in 21 trading days, to the low hit on Tuesday and Wednesday. The plunge in prices was due to the debate of whether or not to taper the Bond purchases and better than expected economic data.

In that same time, the closely watched S&P 500 has gained 3% and seemed to hit fresh closing records almost every day, fueled in part by the continued Fed easy money policies and the aforementioned positive economic data.

Mortgage Bonds opened lower after yesterday's big gains, but bounced off those lows after growth in the US was slightly lower than expectations while Americans filing for first time unemployment benefits rose more than estimated.

This afternoon at 1pm ET, the results from today's $29B 7-Year Note offering will be released and could impact the Bond markets. The government reported that the second estimate for first quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rose by 2.4%, just below the 2.5% from the initial reading and just below the expectations of 2.5%. GDP measures the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located across the nation.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis said, "With the second estimate for the first quarter, increases in private inventory investment, in exports, and in imports were less than previously estimated, but the general picture of overall economic activity is not greatly changed."

Over in the jobs market, the Labor Department reported that Weekly Initial Jobless Claims rose by 10K in the latest week to 354K and above the 340K expected. The 4-week moving average, which smoothes out any seasonal abnormalities, rose by 6,750 to 347,250. The claims data remains in a range that is consistent with just modest job growth. Technically, the Bond is trying to stabilize after hitting lows not seen since April of 2012, but with the ramped up volatility, sentiment can quickly change in this fast moving market.

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