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Douglas Lenski

Mortgage Rates Remain Volatile after Jobs Report

Friday, June 7, 2013 - Article by: Douglas Lenski - Wholesale Mortgage Services of Wisconsin - Message

Wisconsin Mortgage rates remain volatile after the US Jobs report. We had been talking in our last articles how important the jobs numbers would be this week. We predicted that based on the manufacturing data we would see a decrease in hiring and miss the analysts number. We were correct on the manufacturing number but wrong on the overall number or were we?

According the Bureau of Labor Statistics Non Farm Payrolls were up 175,000 jobs when analyst expected 169,000. They also said that their last two reports were revised down 12,000 jobs. With a revision down next month it could be at the 169,000. I think the bigger question is what were added that has the equity markets jumping. Here are some of the job created:

Professional and business services added temporary help services (+26,000)

Within leisure and hospitality, employment in food services and drinking places continued to expand increasing by 38,000 in May

Retail trade employment increased by 28,000 in May.

These jobs would not be considered a long term fix for an individual's economic future. Few would get into these fields with aspiration of retiring after a prosperous 30 year career. How can they provide so much weight to a report aimed at providing a picture into the fiscal health of a nation. This is mind boggling to me. 92,000 of the jobs created are jobs where the person hired will not be there in a couple of years. Did you ever look at the food service industry and their hiring practices? There is a revolving door on the front of hotels for a reason.

According to the report: Employment in other major industries, including mining and logging, construction, manufacturing, wholesale trade, transportation and warehousing, and financial activities, showed little or no change over the month. There were 8000 people let go in the manufacturing sector and the Government report calls this little change.

This is how their report reads on Health Care: Health care employment continued to trend up in May (+11,000). Job gains in home health care services (+7,000) and outpatient care centers (+4,000) more than offset a loss in hospitals (-6,000). Over the prior 12 months, job growth in health care averaged 24,000 per month.

The Government champions growth by the Health Care Sector of 11,000 jobs and discounts the loss of 8,000 jobs in the manufacturing sector as little change.

The Government and the pundits can put any spin on a number they want. The fact is, the broader measure of joblessness (the so-called U-6 number) ticked fractionally lower, but remains elevated at 13.8%. That means 13.8% of Americans that would like work can not find work. Unemployment ticked up as 420,000 entered the workforce to find no jobs. It goes to the saying that it is a recession when your neighbor is out of work and depression if you are out of work.

Milwaukee Mortgage rates should get better as the employment picture remains hazy at best. The Federal Reserve is looking for sustained job growth over 200,000 per month and unemployment near 6.5% to change their asset purchase programs. Their is NO evidence that either will happen anytime soon.

Equity markets continue to rise as every bit of news is thought to be energy for the bull market to run. We are lacking fundamentals and growth. Good news is after hearing all of your complaints about jobs, the government hired 38,000 new bartenders to listen to your problems. Problem solved.

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