Here is a recap of the major economic and political data / reports from the prior week (a lower 10 Year Treasury Yield means generally lower mortgage rates in general and vice versa).
Monday (12/24/12): The 10 Year Treasury Yield rose to 1.77%.
- There are No Major U.S. Economic Releases. The market is still trying to figure out if the U.S. Fiscal Cliff crisis will be solved before year end.
Tuesday (12/25/12): The 10 Year Treasury Yield remained even at 1.77%.
- There are No Major U.S. Economic Releases due to the Christmas holiday.
Wednesday (12/26/12): The 10 Year Treasury Yield dropped to 1.76%.
- The October 2012 U.S. S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index showed that house prices (for 20 major cities in the U.S.) increased by the most in over 2 and 1/2 years (4.3% increase from October 2011), coming in better than market expectations (3.9% increase). This increase in overall housing prices shows that the U.S. housing market is continuing to stabilize.
- U.S. Holiday Retail Sales increased at the lowest rate since 2008 (0.7% increase), coming in much lower than last year (2.0% increase) and also coming in much less than market expectations (3.0% increase). The main reason for this decrease in holiday retail spending is due to the economic uncertainty among U.S. consumers regarding the year end fiscal cliff (due to possible higher tax levels next year).
Thursday (12/27/12): The 10 Year Treasury Yield dropped to 1.72%.
- U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims decreased to a four and half year low with a 350K reading this week (362K the prior week), coming in better than market expectations (375K). This decrease in jobless claims shows a decline in Americans filing for unemployment insurance, which is a positive sign for the U.S. Labor market.
- November U.S. New Home Sales rose to a two year high at 377K (361K the previous month), however it came out slightly worse than market expectations (379K). This increase new home sales shows that the U.S. housing market is recovering, mostly due to low mortgage rates.
- The December U.S. Consumer Confidence Report declined to an Index Level of 65.1 (71.5 Index Level the previous month), coming in worse than market expectations (Index Level of 70.00). The main reason for the decrease in consumer confidence is due to the economic uncertainty among U.S. consumers regarding the year end fiscal cliff (due to possible higher tax levels next year).
Friday (12/28/12): The 10 Year Treasury Yield dropped to 1.71%.
- The December 2012 Chicago PMI Manufacturing Index Level increased to an Index Level of 51.6 (previous month was Index Level of 50.4), coming in slightly greater than market expectations (Index Level 51.0). This report shows that regional manufacturing in Chicago is starting to rise due to a jump in new manufacturing orders, which is the sign of a growing Chicago regional economy.
- November 2012 Pending Home Sales (contracts to buy previously owned homes) increased by 1.7% (5.0% increase the previous month), coming in greater than market expectations (1.7% increase). Even though its slightly less than last month, this increase in pending home sales is mostly due to record low mortgages rates.
- In France, 3rd Quarter 2012 GDP (Gross Domestic Product - all of the nation's economic output) only grew by only 0.1%, which means that France's economy showed no growth over the past year. In addiiton, jobless claims rose to 3.13 Million, which is the highest reading since 1998. These reports show that France's economy is still not growing, which can have a negative effect on the European Debt Crisis
** Today, Monday, (12/31/12): The 10 Year Treasury Yield rose this morning to 1.73%, meaning higher mortgage rates than Friday:
- There are No Major U.S. Economic Releases today. However, there is market optimism that a fiscal cliff deal will get completed before the end of the day today due to added concessions from Republicans and Democrats in Congress. Hopefully they are deciding to agree now for the best of the country and not in order to keep having New Years as a day off...
U.S. Market Data/Releases for the rest of this week:
Tuesday (01/01/13): No Major U.S. Economic Releases (New Years Day Holiday)
Wednesday (01/02/13): Construction Spending
Thursday (01/03/13): Weekly Jobless Claims, ADP Payroll Company Employment Change
Friday (01/04/13): Employment Report / Unemployment Rate, Factory Orders, ISM Services Index