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Kevin Vanic

Market View 10/30/12

Tuesday, October 30, 2012 - Article by: Kevin Vanic - Movement Mortgage Inc. - Message

Market still closed this morning. Stock index futures traded until 9:15, the three key indexes were better but not much. According to the most recent reports the NY exchanges will open tomorrow however it isn't yet clear at what level. If the trading floors can't open the exchanges will trade electronically.

The US bond market closed all day; if open the 10 yr note would likely be fractionally better based on trading in the German 10 yr bund. MBS markets also closed today.

All European stock markets were better today on stronger than expected earnings. Economic confidence in the euro area fell to the lowest in more than three years in October. An index of executive and consumer sentiment dropped to 84.5 from 85.2 in September, the European Commission said. German unemployment rose twice as much as economists forecast in October and the jobless rate increased for the first time in three years.

Crude oil and gold lower today; both were weaker yesterday.

The 10 yr note and MBSs improved yesterday before they closed at 12:00. The 10 yr note yield declined 3 bp while 30 yr MBSs were up slightly tracking the 10 yr.

Economic reports today; the August Case/Shiller home price index was +2.0%; the biggest year-to-year gain since July 2010, after rising 1.2% in the year to July, the group said today in New York. The median forecast of 25 economists was for a 1.9% gain. Oct consumer confidence index was moved to Thursday. Tomorrow the monthly ADP private jobs report has been moved to Thursday. The BLS Oct employment report is still scheduled for Friday, however it is still possible it will be delayed.

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