If you've been following the financial news, you've probably heard that the Fed's been buying Mortgage Backed Securities. Unfortunately, people have picked up on the news and mistakenly discussed how these purchases will continue to cause rates to drop lower. But is that really what it means? No.

The following information can help set the record straight and help you make smart decisions that lead to a low interest rate for your home loan.

How is the Fed's Bond Purchase Related to Rates?

The Fed has been buying Mortgage Bonds. BUT... more precisely, they're buying a lot of FNMA 30-yr 5.0% and 5.5% Bonds. Many of the mortgages in these pools are outstanding home loans with rates between 6.0% and 6.5%, as the rate that a borrower pays is different than the coupon rate given to an investor buying into that mortgage pool, with the difference being taken by Wall Street firms and government agencies. The loans in these pools are likely to be refinanced and paid - because current rates make it very attractive to refinance a loan over 6.0%. Thus, giving the Fed a quick recoup on some of its investment.

Bottom line: The Fed's purchase of higher rate coupons will not necessarily help rates to move lower, as their actions do not impact the loans being originated at today's low rates.

The Problem Is...

Many consumers are in situations where they can refinance now and save hundreds of dollars a month on their mortgage payments. But if they hear people throwing around teases of lower rates ahead, they may decide to hold off on making the decision to save, in the hopes of gaining a few more dollars of savings per month if a lower rate came their way. Of course, while they're waiting, rates could turn higher - especially when you consider that the Fed is scaling back its purchases of Mortgage Backed Securities - and this window of opportunity could pass them by entirely.

Is the Fed Scaling Back?

And What Will It Mean to Rates? Last week, the New York Fed began to scale back their Mortgage Backed Security purchase program. The Fed has been buying about $25 Billion worth of Mortgage Backed Securities per week, but the new plan to drag out these purchases over a longer period of time means that they will be reducing both the frequency and amounts of their purchases. This will cause higher levels of volatility, as the Fed will be purchasing less often and less consistently. As a result, rates will probably rise gradually over time.

Here's the Clincher

Even if consumers are ultimately able to time the market perfectly and save another few bucks per month, they could still end up losing. That's because while they delayed, they lost the savings each month they could have gained by taking action sooner. In other words, they may have lost hundreds of dollars for every month they waited. So even if they got lucky and obtained the rate they were looking for, it could take years to make up what they lost by waiting.

I don't want anyone to miss an opportunity by either waiting or misunderstanding the media headlines. Let's talk further on this. Call or email me, and let's discuss what this might mean for you.