MARKET NEWS

Tuesday's bond market has opened flat with little scheduled to drive trading. The stock markets are showing minor losses with the Dow down 32 points and the Nasdaq down 2 points. The bond market is currently up 1/32, but we may still see an increase in this morning's mortgage rates of approximately .125 of a discount point due to weakness in bonds late yesterday.

As was the case yesterday, there is nothing scheduled for today that is directly relevant to mortgage rates. If we see any intra-day revisions to mortgage rates, it will likely come as a result of movement in stocks. A move into positive ground for the major stock indexes could lead to a small upward revision to mortgage rates later today. On the other hand, if they extend current losses by a sizable amount, bonds should move higher and mortgage rates would likely improve slightly.

Tomorrow starts the week's activity calendar with the first of two important Treasury auctions. The Treasury will sell 10-year Notes tomorrow and 30-year Bonds Thursday. Tomorrow's sale is the more important of the two as it will give us a better indication of demand for mortgage-related securities. If the sales are met with a strong demand from investors, we should see the bond market move higher during afternoon trading tomorrow, possibly leading to an improvement in mortgage pricing. But a lackluster interest from buyers, particularly international investors, would indicate a waning appetite for longer-term U.S. securities and lead to broader bond selling. The selling in bonds would probably result in upward revisions to mortgage rates.

Fed Chairman Bernanke will speak at 9:30 AM ET tomorrow morning, but it is just opening comments at a non-critical conference. Therefore, it is highly unlikely that he will say anything important enough to move the markets or mortgage rates.

None of the economic data that is being posted Thursday and Friday (weekly unemployment numbers, Trade Deficit and Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index) is considered to be highly important. However, since it is the week's only data, it will draw a little more attention than usual. Still, I don't see a reasonable possibility of mortgage rates rallying significantly or spiking higher those days.