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Jeff Cost

EXTREMES THIS YEAR vs EXTREMES LAST YEAR

Monday, August 15, 2011 - Article by: Jeff Cost - ENG Lending, A Division of Bank of England - Message

Enjoy today's issue of By The Number$,

1. FOUR ROTTEN DAYS - The 4 worst days on a total return basis for the S&P 500 during calendar year 2011 (so far) have occurred in the last 2 weeks. The S&P 500 lost 2.6% on 8/02/11, dropped 4.8% on 8/04/11, fell 6.6% on 8/08/11 and then tumbled 4.4% on 8/10/11. In fact, the stock index hasn't had a single trading day as bad as any of those 4 down days since 8/11/10 when the S&P 500 lost 2.8%. Ironically, the 2 best days for the stock index in 2011 (so far) also took place in the last 2 weeks. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the US stock market (source: BTN Research).

2. WORST DAY LAST YEAR, THEN BETTER - The worst day for the S&P 500 during calendar year 2010 was a 3.9% total return loss on 5/20/10. In the 3 months following the 3.9% loss for the S&P 500 on 5/20/10, the stock index gained +0.5%. In the 6 months following the 5/20/10 tumble, the stock index gained +13.1% (source: BTN Research).

3. EXTREMES THIS YEAR (SO FAR) - The best and the worst trading days for the S&P 500 during calendar year 2011 (so far) happened on consecutive trading days last week. The stock index fell 6.6% on Monday (8/08/11) but rebounded with a +4.7% gain on Tuesday (8/09/11). Both returns are total return calculations including the impact of reinvested dividends (source: BTN Research).

4. EXTREMES LAST YEAR - The best and the worst trading days for the S&P 500 during calendar year 2010 (i.e., last year) happened 10 days apart (source: BTN Research).

5. A CORRECTION - Since closing at a bull market peak of 1364 on Friday 4/29/11, the S&P 500 had fallen 17.9% to 1119 as of the close of trading last Monday (8/08/11). A "correction" is defined as a peak-to-trough fall of 10% or more but less than a 20% decline, the threshold at which a "bear market" is achieved. The largest correction that took place during the 2002-07 bull market was a 13.3% tumble that occurred over a 4-month period. In spite of that correction, the S&P 500 still gained +101% during the 5-year bull market run (source: BTN Research).

6. ALMOST A BILLION DOLLARS - As of Friday 8/05/11, the total market capitalization of the companies in the S&P 500 was $10.95 trillion. The 500 companies held an estimated $963 billion of cash as of that day, equal to 9% of their aggregate market cap (source: S&P).

7. NOT SHORT BUT NOT LONG - The average maturity of Treasury debt as of June 2011 was 62 months or just over 5 years. The highest that the average maturity has ever been was 72 months (i.e., 6 years) in late 2001 (source: Treasury Department).

8. LOWEST EVER - The yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell to 2.04% during the trading day last Tuesday (8/09/11), its lowest level ever (source: Treasury Department).

9. THE RATINGS GAME - More than 1 out of every 4 US states (26%) have a top rating (AAA) from S&P. The 2 states with the lowest credit rating from S&P are Illinois (A+) and California (A-). Since downgrading the USA on 8/05/11, S&P has not changed the rating of any US state (source: S&P).

10. BIG SPENDERS - Household debt as a percentage of GDP was 90.2% at the end of 2010. Household debt as a percentage of GDP was 61.4% at the end of 1990. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the annual market value of all goods and services produced domestically by the US (source: The Joint Committee on Taxation).

11. THOSE THAT DO AND THOSE THAT DON'T - 58.1% of working age Americans had a job as of 7/31/11, the lowest percentage recorded in the USA since 7/31/83 or 28 years ago (source: Department of Labor).

12. TWICE AS MUCH - After increasing the nation's debt ceiling limit to $15.2 trillion per the legislation signed by President Obama on 8/02/11, we have more than doubled our debt ceiling limit in less than 7 years. The debt ceiling was $7.4 trillion as of 10/31/04 (source: Treasury Department).

13. PLEASE COME BACK (OR NOT) - Congress does not return from its "August recess" until Tuesday 9/06/11, i.e., 3 weeks from tomorrow (source: House of Representatives, Senate).

14. FOOD ON THE TABLE - 45.8 million Americans receives food stamps today, an all-time record. That represents 1 out of every 7 Americans. The official name of the Food Stamps program is the "Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program" or SNAP (source: Department of Agriculture).

15. GOOD SEASON - The best regular season record ever in major league baseball history was 116-36 by the 1906 Chicago Cubs. The 2001 Seattle Mariners also won 116 games but lost 46 games (source: MLB).


ENG Lending, A Division of Bank of England, always puts your best interest first. We would appreciate the opportunity to serve you. Please visit us at www.cincinnatimortgagerate.net. You will soon find that we are so much more than a Mortgage Banker; we are a company that is dedicated to empowering our clients and Strategic Partners.

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