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Richard Glover

Pigs Get FAT, Hogs Get Slaughtered (Part 1 of 3)

Tuesday, August 2, 2011 - Article by: Richard Glover - American Portfolio Mortgage Corporation - Message

This is my first posting in some time and I'm back with a vengeance!

Rates have moved lower and as you'll learn tomorrow, it has nothing to do with Government borrowing, national debt or the debt ceiling.

We have it the low point in mortgage interest rates for 2011. Now the internet gives the average customer just enough information to think that they know far more than most astute loan officers. Imagine if the media did a report on your business: you would deem it to be absolute drabble and question how that could even be published. It doesn't matter what you do that will be the case. The best analogy of this is those techies in the Cellular Telephony business. Everyone is an expert on Cell Phones! They read it on line, in the paper and now they know better than the professional people who do this for a living. What would a wireless engineer say upon reading most of the media about their business? "It is amazing that they can even print this! What absolute drabble!" or something to that effect.

Anyway, remember last year? Back in November? All of these "well informed" seemingly rational people..."rates will go lower! I'll wait! I think Jim Cramer said they were going into the 3s so I'm with him. Meanwhile, Kiplinger locked his loan (yes he refinanced) quietly before rates got much worse. I don't recall his posting in his newsletter to this aspect but hey we have so many other ways to be informed. Please note that INTEREST RATES WILL GO HIGHER very soon. Don't miss the boat! Don't blow (yet another) last chance refinance opportunity! This is it people: if you have the equity, the credit and the income don't wait! ACT NOW!

Friday there is a jobless number that everyone will say has to be soft. The expectation is already soft 85K jobs. In my experience of monitoring interest rates and the economic data over the years one thing always happens: good economic data appears out of bad. All data is not always bad, even in the worst of times (more on that tomorrow). So, my advice here is that you need to be aware if you have a loan in process LOCK IT ON THURSDAY or before! If you were thinking about refinancing...rates will get worse then get better! Don't miss the boat.

Pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered. How many happy little piglets lost out last December because they thought rates were going to go down forever? Will that be you now?
There are many technical signals that tell me that rates will not just keep going down from here. It has never happened before. Rates get better, way better sometimes, then profit taking occurs, the market having appeared "overbought" corrects and lo and behold, we found the bottom of the interest rate market. We are a long way from the 25 day moving average...I'd keep going but you all know better than me, you read it in the paper!

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