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Douglas Lenski

What is the Difference Between a Recession and a Depression

Monday, July 11, 2011 - Article by: Douglas Lenski - Wholesale Mortgage Services of Wisconsin - Message

Mortgage Backed Securities are Plus 34bps this morning.

A comedian once quipped the difference between a recession and a depression. He said "A recession is when your neighbor is out of work and a depression is when you are out of work". I think that may be the case with the latest jobs report.

We are seeing better than expected manufacturing numbers being released. We saw an increase in private sector jobs. We are seeing slow growth and a little consumer confidence. That means the economy is recovering. Why the lackluster jobs report?

Employers are faced with more orders and a recent bleak economic forecast. They are using the machines they have and the people they have in place. They are not looking to hire and pay added health care cost and employment tax if they can use the people in place. I talked to a couple of gentlemen recently that told me they were getting plenty of work and overtime was available. One of the men I talked with was in manufacturing and the other was in shipping.

The uncertainty in the tax cuts, health care costs, energy prices and the Dodd Frank bill have employers very concerned. That makes me not so worried about the economy as it does our Government. I watched CNBC this morning and watched to politicians yell at each other over the same things that put us in this mess. The sides do not want to make concessions to get the debt ceiling worked out. Political posturing is all they were accomplishing.

We as a country have to look at what is going on in Europe currently and decide if we want to look like them in the near future. The only way we get back on track will be by making cuts, compromises and tough decisions. That will bring confidence back into the economy and put us on the right path.

The good news is Milwaukee Mortgage Rates are slightly better today. We have three bond auctions this week that could turn that momentum on a dime.

www.mortgageserviceswi.com/mortgage-rate-commentary

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