New home sales were up 11% from February to March. WOW the recovery is finally here. What the headline does not tell you is February had the worst reading of new home starts in a few years. The 11% only brings us back to the flat number we had in January and is down 21.9% from last March's reading.. Here is a CNBC article: http://www.cnbc.com/id/42749735 The author seems to share my sentiment. "Don't get me wrong, I'm thrilled to see the sales numbers going in the right direction; I just questioning whether "optimism" is the right word right now. I'm not even sure about "recovery."

The fact is that it will probably get even worse before it gets better. This article I found on Marketwatch.com says that federal funding for first time buyer education and foreclosure prevent may be cut. The 88 million program is part of the governments cuts to balance the budget. Here is the link: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/funding-for-housing-help-gets-budget-ax-2011-04-25

Current homeowners find themselves underwater after losing most of their equity over the last few years. Low rates have allowed current homeowners to refinance to historic low rates. That leaves little motivation to upgrade or down grade their current situation. That leaves the all important first time home buyer to help stimulate the new and existing home sales market. What they need is to be educated how the process works and gain the confidence to purchase their first home. Cutting the 88 million from the current budget would be cutting off your nose to spite your face.

This articles says that nationally we saw a 3.1% decline in home prices. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/outlook-for-real-estate-better-luck-next-year-2011-04-13 The article also goes on to say that we could see another 10 to 15 percent decline this year nationally. I have seen some local predictions that show a 3 - 5 percent decline.

The housing market's demise has been greatly understated. Homebuyers lack the confidence, commitment and the means to change the course of the recovery. I think at this time we should not proclaim a recovery but rather state that we have stabilized the market. Recovery is going to be years away.