Monday, June 13, 2011 - Article by: Jake Belcher - Prime Lending -
No news today but that will all change starting tomorrow with Retail Sales, PPI (inflation at the wholesale level), and housing data. Matter of fact, the balance of the week will be filled with inflation and housing info along with Weekly Claims on Thursday and Leading Economic Indicators on Friday (complete calendar attached). Richmond Fed President Lacker, speaking on the breakfast burrito circuit, expressed frustration with the slow pace of our economy's recovery. "Although the factors affecting the first quarter slowdown may prove temporary, the inability so far for the expansion to gain more traction has been frustrating". Uncertainty on many fronts takes the blame here. Another take on what's ahead by Nouiel Roubini is worth a read. He is the consummate bear but at the same time brings up some interesting points (see link below). Stocks rebounded this morning, looking for their first winning week in nearly 2 months. Currently the Dow is plus 11 points while the Naz is off a couple points. No great shakes as we opened higher by 50 points and have since been slowly slipping. That in turn has helps treasuries to regain unchanged status from earlier negative readings. Mortgage backs haven't moved much, starting the day off a couple 32's and now unchanged to up 1/32nd. Watch stocks, whichever way they go, bonds will do just the opposite. Technically, we see the market bending but not breaking. What we talking about is trending price movement that has a ton of bad news (economy) priced in. Longer term charts are forming a "rounded top" formation, one that takes time to develop but eventually will lead to higher yields/worsening mortgage pricing. Not today's story but we will want to pay attention as the Fed shuts down the treasury purchase program the end of the month. As for today,"looking good Billy Rae, feeling good Lewis" is how we roll.
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