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Richard Glover

LOCK or FLOAT

Wednesday, June 1, 2011 - Article by: Richard Glover - American Portfolio Mortgage Corporation - Message

I've been remiss in posting lately with the Memorial Day holiday and my enjoyment of a long weekend. I'm continuing my recommendation to FLOAT your loan into Friday's Non- Farm Payroll Report. ADP numbers came in bad today, manufacturing numbers were bad today, automotive sales numbers were bad today...guess what? The economy is worse than you are being told by the government and the media and the market told you that today! The market told us a lot in the last 7 days: S&P 500 is trading in a range of 1315 (today's close) and 1344 (resistance). Support was 1320 so coming back to this number and trading within this range will not be surprising.


The Dollar has lost ground (I'll be posting on the importance of the dollar to you, the economy and mortgage rates, soon). This would normally cause stocks to bolster or rebound and the fact that today's dollar losses were unable to stem selling pressure tells me that potential selling pressures could continue. Oil prices are obviously a contributing factor to the economic pull back and who knows when this can recover but we are definitely teetering on the edge of deflation and inflation arguments just as we wrestle with the investment choices of safe haven investing in bonds (stochastically overbought) and taking on risk by purchasing stocks.


Ultimately there are few indicators telling us that jobs are being created. This key component to the economy is measured in many ways and going back to last week the GDP numbers were held in line at 1.8% below and expectation of a revision to 2.2%. This indicates a slowing economy and headwinds to all of the "bulls" feeding you the bull! Private sector numbers by ADP have proven to be a less reliable predictor and this began the disappointment and sell off in stocks today. Most variables come in with readings counter to employment growth in the US and this have shown limited growth in jobs along with increased unemployment.


Rates are going lower...please go to www.rglovermortgage.com to view my periodic updates as to the movement in the market and the direction of interest rates and whether you should LOCK or FLOAT your loan!

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