Minutes of the last Fed Open Market Committee meeting were just released. Interesting that the Fed is starting to focus on inflation and outlining how they would tighten monetary policy (raise rates). That however will not be anytime soon. Complete text attached. The primary reason for sending you an update is to focus on what's happening with interest rates/mortgage pricing in the short term. The chart below represents Elliot Wave Theory chart work on the 10 year note. Notice how close we have come to completing the B wave rally. For Elliot Wavers, close, just like in horseshoes is good enough. You can see on the left chart how today's trade has penetrated the trend lower trend line or what we call the bottom of the channel. It is an early indication that a new C wave is about to unfold. The chart on the right is a daily bar version of 10 year note futures overlaid with Elliot analylitics. It shows topping action related to a study we call Fibonatchi analylitics. We'll talk about some of this tomorrow on the Secondary 101 call. However, the case for a move to the C wave will only get underway "if" 102 26 on this chart is taken out. The yield equivilent on 10 year notes is 3.25%, meaning that yields would need to rise above this level to put the C wave in play . Given the fundamental backdrop we've taked about lately (weakening economy), we do not expect the market to go higher than 3.25%. Honestly, it might not even get there. What we do know is that the market will have more consolidation work to do, telling us that worsening mortgage pricing is a high probability.