The QE2 smashes into the docks at the end of June.

But let's start here: At the beginning of 2010, a one-ounce silver coin sold for less than $18. At the end of the year, that coin sold for nearly $31.

This remarkable gain surely has something important to tell us, especially as gold has been rising at a similar pace and the value of shares of stock has generally been treading water. Meanwhile, interest rates have generally been creeping higher at the longer-term end (10-year T-notes, for example, which 30-year fixed-rate mortgages follow up and down).

It seems that most people, looking at all this, have reached a simple conclusion: The markets have gone a bit overboard for precious metals...but this has gone on long enough, taking prices high enough, that we should surely see prices correct sometime soon.

Consider, though: While gold and silver have plentiful commercial value as the source of jewelry and in important products like photovoltaic cells, they are--as coins and bullion bars--a form of currency. You can't walk into most stores and purchase goods with these coins, but you can convert them rather easily into cash.

Take this fact seriously. Gold and silver aren't so much an investment as they are an alternative currency. Their value rises, not coincidentally, when more and more people see them as a superior alternative to, say, dollars.

In other words, if the price of gold and silver has climbed this much of late, it is a big vote against the future strength and value of the dollar. Those who are worried that the dollar might begin to lose value--and, indeed, it already has--are protecting their wealth by converting it into precious metals.

This is the background, I am guessing, for the gathering storm that may accompany the end of QE2, which will occur on June 30. At that point, the Fed will stop buying up large quantities of longer-term Treasuries; it will no longer support higher demand for the Treasuries, helping to keep rates low; and the market will have to make its way based on actual values and investor decisions, rather than on the propping up provided by the Fed.

The last time this happened, when QE1 ended, the stock market indices fell sharply, the dollar's exchange rate fell, and interest rates rose. Perhaps that is one of the things that the prices of silver and gold have been warning us: When the artificial manipulation of the market is trimmed back, artificially low interest rates will start to rise in a serious way, artificially high stock share prices will decline, and we'll see more volatility in all market indices.

Now, a couple of things need to be considered. First, the price of silver, historically, starts to rise long after the price of gold has made a strong move higher for a while. Thus, the rising price of silver could be telling us that the value of precious metals may soon turn around. Second, we aren't in a good position to foretell the future movements of interest rates--or of just about anything--since they've been manipulated so long by the Fed's maneuverings.

And I guess there's an obvious third issue: All speculation about silver and gold could simply be wrong. But we'll know more about that possibility fairly soon into the summer. If the prices of silver and gold do fall, then my concerns about higher interest rates may be unwarranted. If they do not, however, it's time to watch rates' swings even more carefully than we usually do. They may swing up...high.