I see a lot of information and blogging on this site about the direction of interest rates and it is very informative. There are regular postings of economic data that is upcoming and information about what the "open" of the market was like. One recent blogger recently predicted that rates will be 50 basis points higher by year's end; rates are going to be near 5.5% which isn't bad historically speaking.

For you home shoppers, now could be a good time to jump into the market and if you purchase your home or have your rate locked in by June, you may have a pleasant surprise. I significantly lower interest rate.

For those of you who thought you missed the boat on a refinance, it is time to "rack 'em and stack 'em. My advice here is to wait until after April 7 because at that point, rates are going to be the biggest moving target you have seen in your life. (see my blog https://www.lender411.com/mortgage-articles/2149/The-Winds-of-Change/ from March 21, 2011). Essentially, do your legwork now and develop a trusting relationship with the person who will be on the ready to "activate" you when that glorious day comes. Rates near the historic lows we saw last November!

What is the basis of this prediction? First, a little background: I am constantly contacted by people looking to maximize their ability to get the lowest rates for their customers. Other mortgage brokers and bankers have been able to profit from my "crystal ball."

In February I posted on my web site that the "ides of March" were our next low point in interest rates. The foundation of that prediction had more to do with my expectation of retail sales and economic data being more disappointing than expected but in that period referenced in Julius Caesar by William Shakespeare we had the tragic earthquake and a spike in the upheaval in the Middle East.

Rates are always a moving target. I study many data points to come to my conclusions, decide when to lock in loans and make sure that my customer has the lowest rate based on that timing. So, what is the basis for my prediction that rates will be going lower?

Let's remove our CNBC Cheerleader Skirts and put down our Megaphones and stop the "ra ra" nature of the current supposed economic recovery. We are hearing every day on virtually every news channel how good the economy is doing. We are in the middle of a strong economic recovery that is going to create jobs and growth and expansion and all the good things that will bring "happy days hear again." Do you feel that this is true? Inflation is becoming a huge concern! All of this new demand from around the world for oil and other raw materials is driving up the price, creating inflation and bond traders hate inflation because it erodes their return.

Take a look around you! Restaurants are closing everywhere. There is an abundance of commercial space. Consumers who lost their jobs are now working for lower wages in their new positions. The unemployment rate isn't going down; more people are giving up on looking for work so they are not counted in the household figure. Yes, companies have slowed the pace of lay offs but still almost 400K people per week are filing for new unemployment benefits. THAT"S 400,000 per week! It used to be 300K was the barometer. Somehow, we changed the barometer of optimism to be 400K? Companies are reporting record profits because they reduced their biggest expense: labor costs.

Everyone is working harder for less money than before. The stock market has rallied with little conviction or volume to create artificial wealth. Everyone feels better because their 401K recovered from lows of a year ago. Sentiment is improving because the media is telling you things to make you feel better. Responsible journalism went out the window and now, the cable Business Channel near you is propagandizing the outstanding recovery that we have going on here.

Oil is over $100/barrel. This takes discretionary consumer income right off the top. It has a direct affect on our economy. Eventually, after the economy has slowed, oil prices will come down, too and this reduces inflation. New fears will enter into the state of the global economic recovery then...bonds will rally and the inverse relationship to interest rates means that they will go lower. There are other underlying areas to support this argument. Stocks are ripe for a sell off. Things are overheating in the "Bric's." (Brazil, India, China). Inflation expectations are overstated. The FED is telling us two stories! While they have to temper the concerns created by QEII, they also know that the "recovery" is not on stable footing. The late Easter is also going to play a roll as retail sales are going to crumble in early April and unlikely to recover in time. The bottom line: Rates are going to get lower because we are on the verge of waking up and realizing that things are not nearly as good as we are being told.

Rates are going to go lower because the World economy is more interrelated than ever before and while it will be the US that leads the Global Economy to a better economic time, that time is not soon!

Please review my web site www.rglovermortgage for almost daily economic updates and my position on LOCK/FLOAT based on the current conditions....