For the week of Feb 21, 2011 | Vol. 9, Issue 8

In This Issue...


Last Week in Review: Inflation is heating up - find out what this means for home loan rates.
Forecast for the Week: The markets may be closed Monday for Presidents' Day, but the rest of the week is filled with a slew of economic reports.
View: Know who the first president was to live in the White House? How about the only president born on July 4th? Read this week's View for fun facts about the presidency.

Last Week in Review


"You sound like a broken record..." or so the cliche goes. And lately that saying certainly applies to the phrase the media has been repeating recently: Don't fight the Fed.
So what does "Don't fight the Fed" mean exactly, especially when it comes to home loan rates? Let's answer that by going back a few months. In early November, when home loan rates were at all time lows, the Fed announced their plan to purchase $600 Billion in Treasuries through mid-2011. Dubbed Quantitative Easing 2 or QE2, the Fed had three goals:
1. Boost Stock Prices
2. Lower unemployment
3. Create inflation

After just two and a half months, an argument could be made that the Fed has been somewhat successful so far. Stocks are higher, the unemployment rate has improved (though more improvement is certainly needed), and as we saw last week inflation has ticked higher.
Both the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index for January were hotter than expected and, as the chart shows, the more closely watched Core CPI, which strips out food and energy, came in at the highest level since March 2010. And we're not just seeing hotter inflation here. Reports last week showed inflation is heating up in China and England, too.
So what does all of this mean for home loan rates? Inflation is the arch enemy of Bonds and home loan rates, and usually any hints of inflation cause both to worsen. Yet, you may be wondering why Bonds and home loan rates improved slightly last week. There are two things to note: First, while last week's inflation data was a touch hotter than expected, overall, it's still on the tame side. Second, last week's Initial Jobless Claims was a disappointment, suggesting that the labor market continues to improve but at a very choppy and sluggish snail's pace.

The bottom line to remember is the phrase we started out with: Don't fight the Fed. If the Fed wants to create inflation as one of its three-fold goals for QE2, it will likely succeed...and Bonds and home loan rates will likely worsen over time as a result. That's why if you have been thinking about purchasing or refinancing a home, this is a great time to get started! Call or email me if you have any questions at all - I'm always happy to talk to you! Or forward this newsletter on to someone you know who may benefit from today's historically low rates.

Forecast for the Week


It's a holiday shortened week, with both the Stock and Bond Markets closed Monday in observance of Presidents' Day. But there will be lots of news the rest of the week:
o We'll get a double read on how the consumer is feeling, first on Tuesday with the Consumer Confidence Report and then on Friday with the Consumer Sentiment Index.
o We'll also get a double read on the housing market, with Wednesday's Existing Home Sales Report and Thursday's New Home Sales Report.
o Thursday will also bring another weekly Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims Report - will this week's report disappoint like last week's?
o And there's one more double read, this one on the health of the economy. Thursday's Durable Goods Report will update us on consumer and business buying behavior on big-ticket items that are designed to last for an extended period of time (i.e. appliances, furniture, etc). Then on Friday there's the Gross Domestic Product Report, which is the broadest measure of economic activity.
Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result.


Hail to the Chief: Fun Facts about the Presidency

Chances are you know that Barack Obama is the 44th president. But did you know he's only the 43rd person to hold the office? That's because Grover Cleveland was elected to two non-consecutive terms as president - so he's listed as the 22nd and the 24th president. As a result, the number of people who held office is actually one less than the number of presidents the United States has had.

That's just one of many fun presidential facts behind the story of America's presidents. In honor of Presidents' Day this week, here are some tidbits and oddities about the men who have led our country.

First president to live in the White House?
Officially, John Adams became the first president to live in the presidential residence that we know as the White House. However, when he moved into the residence during 1800, it wasn't called the White House. Instead, it was referred to as the President's Palace, the President's House, or the Executive Mansion. The first president to live in the "White House" was Theodore Roosevelt, who gave the residence its official name in 1901.

Tallest president?
The tallest president of the United States was Abraham Lincoln, who stood 6 feet, 4 inches tall. Conversely, the shortest president was James Madison, who was only 5 feet, 4 inches tall - an entire foot shorter than Lincoln.

First president to be born as a US citizen?
Martin Van Buren was the first president to be born as a citizen of the newly created United States of America. The seven presidents prior to Van Buren (Washington, J. Adams, Jefferson, Madison, Monroe, J.Q. Adams, and Jackson) were considered British subjects. Incidentally, William Henry Harrison, who took office immediately after Van Buren was also born as a British subject. It's also interesting to note that Abraham Lincoln was the first president born outside of the original colonies. Herbert Hoover was the first president born west of the Mississippi River. And, finally, Richard Nixon was the first and only president born in California.

Youngest president?
This is another tricky one. Theodore Roosevelt was actually the youngest president of the United States. He was only 42 years old when he took office; however, he became president after William McKinley died in office. John F. Kennedy was the youngest president ever "elected" to office. He was only 43 years old when he was elected president in November of 1960. So depending on how you interpret the question, either answer could be correct. On the flip side, Ronald Reagan was the oldest president. He was 69 when he took office and 77 when he left.

First president to appear on television?
Franklin D. Roosevelt was the first president to appear on TV. The appearance took place during the opening ceremonies of the World's Fair in 1939. John F. Kennedy, however, was the first president to give a live television news conference. Warren G. Harding and Rutherford B. Hayes had famous firsts of their own. Harding was the first president to address the nation via radio, and Hayes was the first president to have a telephone in the White House.

Born on July 4th?
The only president to be born on the Fourth of July was Calvin Coolidge, who was born on July 4, 1872. However, three presidents died on this national holiday. Both John Adams and Thomas Jefferson died on July 4, 1826. And James Monroe died on July 4, 1831.

Lost the popular vote, but was still elected president?
John Quincy Adams was actually voted into office by the House in 1824 after the general election failed to produce a majority of the electoral votes. In addition, Rutherford B. Hayes in 1876, Benjamin Harrison in 1888, and most recently George W. Bush in 2000 also took office despite losing the popular vote.

Graduated from the US Naval Academy in Annapolis?
The only president to graduate from the US Naval Academy in Annapolis was Jimmy Carter, who graduated in 1946 and then served in the nuclear submarine program. Ulysses S. Grant and Dwight D. Eisenhower both graduated from West Point. Woodrow Wilson, on the other hand, was the only president who had a Ph.D. He received a doctorate in political science from Johns Hopkins University in 1886.

Served in the US Congress after leaving office?
Andrew Johnson and John Quincy Adams were the only two former presidents to serve in the US Congress after leaving office. Johnson served in the Senate, and Adams served in the House. John Tyler did not serve in the US Congress, but he did serve as a delegate to the provisional Congress of the Confederacy after the outbreak of the Civil War. On the other hand, William Howard Taft is the only president to serve as chief justice of the US Supreme Court. After leaving the White House, he became a professor of constitutional law at Yale and was later appointed chief justice in 1921.

The material contained in this newsletter is provided by a third party to real estate, financial services and other professionals only for their use and the use of their clients. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, we do not make any representations as to its accuracy or completeness and as a result, there is no guarantee it is without errors.