Monday, March 11, 2019 - Article by: Mark Hemingway - Security Financial Services, LLC -
The consumer bounced back in January after weak sales numbers at retail outlets were reported in December. Retail sales grew 0.2% in January after the negative 1.6% reported in December. The drop in December could have been due to the partial government shutdown towards the end of December and the decline in stock prices during the month of 2018. Year-over-year sales grew 2.3% from January 2018. When stripping out autos, sales jumped 0.9% from the -2.1% seen in December. One bad month does not constitute a trend.
Fed Chair Powell was on 60 minutes last night and reiterated his "patient" stance on interest rates. Mr. Powell also that he sees no reason why the U.S. economy shouldn't continue to expand. The Fed chief went on to say that unemployment is low while inflation is muted. The Fed member will meet next week for the scheduled two-day Federal Open Market Committee Meeting. There is a near zero percent chance of a hike to the benchmark short-term Fed Funds Rate.
The rest of the week's economic calendar features the inflation reading Consumer Price Index and Consumer Sentiment. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index and the government's jobs related JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) report will be released later in the week. There will be added bond supply as the Treasury will sell $38 billion 3-year Notes today, $24 billion 10's tomorrow and $16 billion 30-year bonds on Wednesday. All results at 1:00 p.m. ET. The results could impact the Bond markets.
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