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CERTIFIED FUNDING CAPITAL CORP.

market updates September 29, 2010

Wednesday, September 29, 2010 - Article by: CERTIFIED FUNDING CAPITAL CORP. - Certified Funding Capital Corporation - Message

Bond Ticker

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2:52 pm - Listless: The 78.70 level in the dollar index has held up as support over the course of the afternoon as the dollar looks to rebound from its seventh decline in the past eight sessions. The euro is back near its highs even though the dollar has not pushed to intraday lows, while the pound fluctuates on both sides of the flat line. The yen remains front and center, trading 83.60, as it continues its retracement of the move that occurred as a result of BOJ intervention on September 15th. The swiss is a little weaker to .9769, and has flat lined for most of the session.

2:19 pm - Issues: New York life plans to sell $250 mln of 1.5 year floating-rate notes

Aviation Capital plans $300 mln sale of 10-yr notes

Bank Nederlandse Gemeenten sells $1.5 bln of 5-yr notes

2:08 pm - Spiking: Yields spike to their highest levels of the session on the heels of a sharp selloff. The 10-yr is back above 2.50% after falling near 2.47% following the strong 7-yr auction.

2:03 pm - Teetering: The dollar teeters nears it session midpoint, trading 78.75, down from yesterday's 79.01. The 78.00 area should provide at least temporary relief from a further decline in the greenback as that level represents decent support. After seeing some early morning easing, the euro pushed to its best level the day, hitting 1.3645 before pulling back slightly. The pound has recently slipped to near session lows after once again failing at resistance near 1.5850. Early action in the aussie ran the currency to its best in 26 months as it looks to test the July 2008 record high of .9849 against the dollar. The risk trade continues to spin its tires as the aussie/yen cross remains stuck near 81.10.

1:04 pm - Auction Up: 7-yr note auction draws 1.890%. Sees a 3.04 bid to cover (10-auction average of 2.84) and indirect bidders taking down 50.2%. Best bid to cover since 7-yr was brought back in Q1 2009. Pretty solid.

12:21 pm - Selloff: A sharp selloff in treasuries is pulling yields to their session highs ahead of today's auction. The selloff has come on surprisingly strong volume as an absence of economic data and no catalyst has provided little information. The 10-yr is back near a yield of 2.50% after seeing a session low print of 2.449%. The 2-10-yr spread has swung steeper to 206.2 from a session low near 202. With yields at critical support levels look for steepeners to possibly drive the curve in the near-term as a catalyst will most likely be needed to flatten the curve and push yields below current support. Just after 1 p.m. ET the Treasury will announce the results of its $29 bln 7-yr note auction. The 10-auction average bid to cover is 2.84, slightly lower than last auction's 2.98. Indirect bidders have a 10-auction average takedown of 50.1% with that number coming in higher for the previous auction at 56.7%.

11:48 am - Stuck: The dollar is back to the midpoint of today's session, recently falling from its best above 78.90 to 78.75. The recent weakness in the dollar has caused the euro to run to 1.3630, just off session highs, while the pound chops around the flat line at 1.5795. Trade in the swiss has been stuck between near unchanged for most of the session even as the other risk-averse currency, the yen, trades better to 83.65. The risk trade has stalled near these levels for two weeks as the aussie/yen cross has been unable to push solidly above the 80.20 resistance level.

10:56 am - Issues: DineEquity plans to sell $825 mln of 8-yr notes


Dubai raises $1.25 bln, selling $500 mln in 5-yr notes and $750 mln in 10-yr notes


10:48 am - Directionless: Trade has found no direction as treasuries chop around unchanged. Expect more choppiness ahead of the 7-yr note auction as a lack of data and the absence of a catalyst will make for a pretty quiet morning. The 10-yr hit a session low yield of 2.453%, causing the 2-10-yr spread to flatten below 202, but both have since widened. Spot gold is flat at 1309.

10:19 am - Dollar Hits 9-month Lows: The dollar index (DXY) tumbled to 78.16 this morning, its worst level since January 9. The dollar continues to be offered as anticipation of a second round of QE from the Fed weighs on the currency. Disappointing economic data will lead to further selling as the market is under the belief that the Fed will act to stimulate a stagnant economy. Tomorrow Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will testify in front of Congress on financial regulation. While monetary policy is not on the agenda, there will likely be some questions from the panel on the current and planned Fed moves that will have an impact on the dollar. The 78 level promises to be a strong level of support for the greenback. Also there are some reports that Asian central banks were in the markets purchasing dollars to offset the recent appreciation in their own currencies.

The euro continues to set multi-month highs. The single currency hit 1.3643 this morning, its first trip above 1.36 since April 15. That is when the sovereign debt concerns took center stage and investors reacted by aggressively selling the euro. The rally in the euro has been impressive but there are some potential headwinds in the works over the next couple of days. Among the news to watch: 1) Reports that Moody's will be meeting with Spanish officials to determine if the current rating is accurate; 2) The plans from the Irish government on the winding down of troubled assets form Anglo Irish Bank; 3) A roll over at the ECB of recent re-fi activity. 1.36 promises to offer stiff resistance.

The pound is battling with the 1.58 level as it attempts to challenge 1.60 once again. The move has been impressive given the widespread speculation that the BoE is expected to expand the current QE programs in order to stimulate the troubled economy.

The yen has pushed back below the 84 level against the dollar this morning. The first round of intervention by the country has been ineffective and perhaps has further emboldened traders. Last night the most recent Tankan Survey was published from the country. While the services and manufacturing survey was better than expected, concern remained around the strong yen and the impact it would have on manufacturing. The 15-year low of 82.77-87 will be closely watched.

Today there will be a vote in the House on the Fair Trade Act which basically will designate China as a currency manipulator. The next step is for the bill to be sent to the Senate. It is not expected to pass in the Senate, at least before the November 2 elections and the November G-20 meeting (Korea Nov 11-12). The general feeling is that the House vote will be a bluff by the administration in order to step up pressure on the Chinese to allow the yuan to appreciate. The yuan is trading at 6.6865 against the buck right now.

09:27 am - Flip Flop: Treasuries have seen a reversal, running from their worst levels of the session to their best as traders position themselves ahead of today's 7-yr note auction. Yields are lower across most of the curve (5-yr yield is higher) with the 10-yr falling briefly below 2.450%. The 2-10-yr spread has moved flatter on the rally, dipping below 202.0. Expect a battle to ensue between steepeners and flatteners as the belly of the curve trades near key support. Spot gold and silver have eased off their best levels and trade 1309 and 21.81 respectively.

08:49 am - Issues: Hyundai Motor to sell $500 mln of 5 1/2 yr bonds

Hongkong Land will sell $600 mln of 15-yr bonds

Associated Materials plans to sell $730 mln of 7-yr notes

08:29 am - Nothing Doing: Treasuries have drifted to their lowest levels since the start of yesterday's U.S. session. Days absent of economic data have been producing lower prices and higher yields. The 10-yr visited its session lows, sending its yield up to 2.485% before easing as the 2-10-yr spread steepened to 205.0, and then backed down to 203.5. Stay tuned for the 7-yr note auction as it will be the main driver for treasuries during today's trade.

07:46 am - Falling: The dollar finds itself lower for the seventh time in the past eight sessions, slipping below 79.00, and hitting 78.61 before seeing a bounce to 78.80. Dollar weakness has been a slight benefit to the euro, which has pushed above 1.3600 for the first time since mid-April. The pound spent the entire overnight session above the flat line, but has recently turned lower, and now trades 1.5785 from yesterday's 1.5800. Mid-September BOJ intervention has done little to weaken the yen, as it strengthened to 83.50, its strongest since the intervention, while the swiss saw another record high against the dollar, but has eased off and now trades slightly higher near .9770. The impressive run in the aussie keeps going, pushing .9710, as its now within striking distance of its July 2008 record of .9849.

07:28 am - Little Change: Treasuries are relatively unchanged after two days of gains coming on mixed economic data and strong auctions. This afternoon, the Treasury will unload $29 bln of 7-yr notes, wrapping up their note auctions for the week. The 10-yr has seen its yield slip close to 16 bps over the past two sessions, and now finds itself just above the August low yield of 2.419%. The 2-10-yr spread is slightly steeper this morning, running 204.0, as it flirts with the 200 level for the first time since late August. Once again, the 10-30 spread is little changed as it trades near 119. Spot gold pushed to an all-time high of 1313.45 and now trades near 1310 while spot silver ran to 22.00, its best since September 1980, before backing down. Today's data has already been take care of with the little followed MBA mortgage apps, but Fed speak is flowing with Minneapolis' Kocherlakota in London on the economic outlook (10:15), Philly's Plosser on the economy in Jersey (12:30), and Boston's Rosengren in NYC (13:15).

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