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Douglas Lenski

Mortgage Rates to Remain Low

Tuesday, October 22, 2013 - Article by: Douglas Lenski - Wholesale Mortgage Services of Wisconsin - Message

Wisconsin Mortgage rates remain steady this morning. One would have thought that a disappointing jobs report would have sent the equity markets into a tail spin. Quite the opposite happened this morning when the job reports were released. 148,000 jobs were created according to the latest government survey. This missed analysts forecasts by 37,000 jobs.Why all the enthusiasm then this morning? The Chicago Fed President Charles Evans stated that the Fed is looking for sustained reports of 220,000 jobs or greater. This report widely misses that mark and the next report should not be much better. The next report is due out in just 2 short weeks. Many businesses decided to wait on hiring until after the government shutdown to gain a clearer picture of the economy moving forward. That means November is the earliest chance to start sustained growth.November is typically a huge hiring month for retailers and restaurants. These businesses start hiring new employees for the holiday season. I am not so sure you can say the same for other industries. Businesses start to slow production and reduce inventories for year end audits and tax purposes. That would suggest that if you strip out seasonal employees, the jobs report could be dismal.This chart from the Department of Labor shows job creation by month over the last 10 years. You would be hard pressed to find sustained growth anywhere on that chart in the last ten years. We had four months of growth from December 2011 to March 2012. You had 3 months in January to March 2006 of over 220,000 jobs.

Year

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Annual

200389-158-215-51-10-320-4410519713119

200415943333247306783712515534365128

20051302401353621682463721926581335158

20062743162801812180210179159-3205169

2007234901867614180-35-24778611193

200814-85-79-215-186-169-216-270-459-472-775-705

2009-794-695-830-704-352-472-351-210-233-170-21-220

2010-13-40154229521-130-86-37-4322814495

20116919620530411520978132225166174230

201231127120511212587153165138160247219

201314833214219917617289193(P)148(P)

P : preliminary

Investors know that low rates and free money are here for the foreseeable future. There is no evidence in history or the economy that sustained growth is around the corner.Wisconsin Mortgage rates remain low and should remain low until the end of the year.

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