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Is this dip in rates a trend or just a one-time thing? Should we lock now?

by SidFernandez from Signal Hill, California. Feb 24th 2011 Reply


Rich Constantine (rconstantine)
#399 ranked lender in California - 79 contributions

You could see further improvement in the rates and the Turmoil in the Middle East errupts and alot of other factors Alex talks about. I would say if you absolutely love the rate and the terms, lock in now. We did see the 10 year Bond dip from 3.62% Last Friday, to, now 3.42%! That is 20 basis point drop, in 5 days! Pretty huge. We saw about .125-.250 improvement. I would say give it a few more days and follow the 10 year bond on money.cnn.com. Easy as that. Hope this helps. Any more Q's clink my link. RC

Feb 24th 2011
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Erik Miller (EMiller@PeoplesMortgage.com)
#54 ranked lender in Arizona - 18 contributions

Great question: Here is the most simple answer.... You have to do what makes sense to you right now. My opinion is that you should lock if you feel good that your lock rate will work for you. My advise would be (if you do lock) to do it and don't look back. Good luck.

Feb 24th 2011
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Rudi Hofmann (CaPortfolioLoans)
#281 ranked lender in California - 380 contributions

The most rates have been fluctuating lately is about 0.125%.... True, about the middle east.... Stock market gets jittery and bond prices go up.... But, is it worth waiting for? ... All rates today are good enough to lock, in my opinion. ... Happy funding, Rudi

Feb 24th 2011
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Daniel Lotter (dnllotter)
#26 ranked lender in Colorado - 58 contributions

I would lock now - Compare your mortgage rate and fees with us - Give us a call - I would like to see if we can get you a lower payment and even lower some of your closing costs. Call me - Daniel Lotter/CEO Tri Star Funding, LLC - Thanks

Feb 25th 2011
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Daniel Lotter (dnllotter)
#26 ranked lender in Colorado - 58 contributions

877-489-8249

Feb 25th 2011
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Matt Baker NMLS#190779 (MattBaker)
#31 ranked lender in Arizona - 75 contributions

Best advice I can give is lock. If you wan't a competing quote. I can help. Rates have moved lower with fear from Middle East anti-government concerns, in Libya and Egypt. The rising oil prices and the movement of money to more stable secure investment like US bonds, have caused the quick dip. My guess is this is short lived and will most likely climb back up once the news and converns diminish. Problem is know one nows, that could be next week or a month. Lock know and take advantage, as there is no question this is temporary. Rates will continue to go up over the long term.

Feb 25th 2011
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Dan Paladin (dpaladin)
#356 ranked lender in California - 792 contributions

Rates always fluctuate...based on many different factors. It is more likely just a trend..for now. If you are happy with the numbers as they are...then take it...it is always a gamble to try and pick the bottom...you will generally miss it...

Feb 25th 2011
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Patrick McCarthy (PatrickM)
#22 ranked lender in Ohio - 196 contributions

Hi SidIf anyone knew what was going to happen with the rates, I can assure you they would be wealthier than they could possibly imagine. We anticipate slight variances in rate, but not enough to risk loosing a low rate if they start to climb again. If you are thinking of gettin a loan or currently in the process, check with a few of us for the best terms and loc as soon as you can. I am able to lock now AND give you a lower rate if they go down. I am able to lend in 47 states. Where are you located? Patrick McCarthy, Northpointe Bank, 866-901-3576, PatrickM@Northpointe.com

Feb 25th 2011
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Alexander K (alex@ogimb.com)
#400 ranked lender in California - 56 contributions

US interest rates started better this morning on continuing increases on oil prices; the stock market key indexes pre-open were trading weaker. Crude oil continues to increase, West Texas Intermediate oil trading over $100.00 a barrel early today while Brent Sea oil is at $120.00 a barrel (see below for 10:00 level). Oil output has been cut from Libya and Algeria as those so called governments move ever closer to collapse. Qaddafi is still hanging on but everyday another member of his ruling cartel are leaving to join protestors; it may take a few more days but it appears Qaddafi will be forced to leave the country. In the meantime in Saudi Arabia citizens took to the streets, but not in protest, in celebration the king has returned to the country after receiving medical treatment. The king in a move to fend off any citizen unrest said he would spend $37B for social services. So far the country is quiet. Crude oil will likely continue higher, oil traders saying $140.00 is where its headed; if that happens the US stock market will continue its decline and US interest rates will find support. Safe haven moves to treasuries are supporting the mortgage markets as long term rates decline. That said, the safety moves to treasuries don't amount to a lot, suggesting the situations in the Mideast and N Africa will not present any longer term serious problems. If investors were truly fearing a massive collapse of governments in the region that would cut oil production safety moves into treasuries would by now have interest rates at least 25 basis lower. The improvement in US rate markets is attributable to the long awaited correction in the stock market as much as it is on safety moves. Of course the decline in stock indexes is being motivated by oil prices increasing, that will likely continue. Oil traders always, without fail, over-run reality on huge moves up or down, this time will be the same. OPEC lead by the Saudis are not likely to let oil production decline for long before increasing production. Already this morning, after trading better the bond and mortgage markets are backing off while the stock indexes that were very weak at 8:00 have worked better into the 9:30 open. Crude oil early on was up $3.00/barrel from yesterday, by 9:15 up $1.50. At 8:00 the 10 yr note +15/32 at 4.43% -6 bp, mortgage prices +10/32 (.31 bp); at 9:15 the 10 +8/32 at 3.45% and mortgage prices +4/32 (.12 bp). The day is beginning with increased volatility. Weekly jobless claims this morning declined 22K to 391K, traders were looking for about an unchanged read. Continuing claims fell to 3.790 mil frm 3.935 mil last week, the lowest since Oct 2008. Also at 8:30 Jan durable goods orders, always a volatile series, were up 2.7%, Dec revised from -2.3% to -0.4%. A nice headline, but when volatile transportation orders are excluded orders fell 3.6%, when transportation and defense orders are excluded orders plummeted 6.9%. At 10:00 Jan new home sales, expected to have fallen 5.8%, declined 12.6% to an annual rate of 284K; the lowest annual level for new home sales is 274K. No reaction to the report in either stocks or bond markets. At 1:00 this afternoon Treasury will auction $29B of 7 yr notes, yesterday's and Tuesday's 5 yr and 2 yr auctions were not the best in terms of demand. Some are beginning to question whether foreign investors are backing away from US debt; if today's 7 yr suffers weaker demand look for that question to gain more attention. US interest rates started better this morning on continuing increases on oil prices; the stock market key indexes pre-open were trading weaker. Crude oil continues to increase, West Texas Intermediate oil trading over $100.00 a barrel early today while Brent Sea oil is at $120.00 a barrel (see below for 10:00 level). Oil output has been cut from Libya and Algeria as those so called governments move ever closer to collapse. Qaddafi is still hanging on but everyday another member of his ruling cartel are leaving to join protestors; it may take a few more days but it appears Qaddafi will be forced to leave the country. In the meantime in Saudi Arabia citizens took to the streets, but not in protest, in celebration the king has returned to the country after receiving medical treatment. The king in a move to fend off any citizen unrest said he would spend $37B for social services. So far the country is quiet. Crude oil will likely continue higher, oil traders saying $140.00 is where its headed; if that happens the US stock market will continue its decline and US interest rates will find support. Safe haven moves to treasuries are supporting the mortgage markets as long term rates decline. That said, the safety moves to treasuries don't amount to a lot, suggesting the situations in the Mideast and N Africa will not present any longer term serious problems. If investors were truly fearing a massive collapse of governments in the region that would cut oil production safety moves into treasuries would by now have interest rates at least 25 basis lower. The improvement in US rate markets is attributable to the long awaited correction in the stock market as much as it is on safety moves. Of course the decline in stock indexes is being motivated by oil prices increasing, that will likely continue. Oil traders always, without fail, over-run reality on huge moves up or down, this time will be the same. OPEC lead by the Saudis are not likely to let oil production decline for long before increasing production. Already this morning, after trading better the bond and mortgage markets are backing off while the stock indexes that were very weak at 8:00 have worked better into the 9:30 open. Crude oil early on was up $3.00/barrel from yesterday, by 9:15 up $1.50. At 8:00 the 10 yr note +15/32 at 4.43% -6 bp, mortgage prices +10/32 (.31 bp); at 9:15 the 10 +8/32 at 3.45% and mortgage prices +4/32 (.12 bp). The day is beginning with increased volatility. Weekly jobless claims this morning declined 22K to 391K, traders were looking for about an unchanged read. Continuing claims fell to 3.790 mil frm 3.935 mil last week, the lowest since Oct 2008. Also at 8:30 Jan durable goods orders, always a volatile series, were up 2.7%, Dec revised from -2.3% to -0.4%. A nice headline, but when volatile transportation orders are excluded orders fell 3.6%, when transportation and defense orders are excluded orders plummeted 6.9%. At 10:00 Jan new home sales, expected to have fallen 5.8%, declined 12.6% to an annual rate of 284K; the lowest annual level for new home sales is 274K. No reaction to the report in either stocks or bond markets. At 1:00 this afternoon Treasury will auction $29B of 7 yr notes, yesterday's and Tuesday's 5 yr and 2 yr auctions were not the best in terms of demand. Some are beginning to question whether foreign investors are backing away from US debt; if today's 7 yr suffers weaker demand look for that question to gain more attention.

Feb 24th 2011
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